By David R. Parsons, ICEJ Senior Vice President & Spokesman

The historic political comeback of Donald J. Trump in this year’s very eventful US presidential campaign will have far-reaching impacts across America and the globe. For Israelis, the big question is whether his surprisingly solid election win will now bring a quick victory for Israel in its prolonged war against the Iranian-led axis of terror.

In assessing the outcome of this election from an Israel perspective, it is first worthwhile to sum up the Biden administration by saying that his team sent a myriad of mixed signals which aimed to topple the Netanyahu government and ended up impeding Israel’s war effort against Hamas, yet outgoing President Joe Biden did hand over $US billions in sorely needed American weapons and he seemed genuinely sensitive to the way the October 7 massacres touched the raw nerve of the Holocaust.

At the same time, there is widespread relief in Israel that the nation is not having to cope with a Kamala Harris presidency. Polls showed two-thirds of Israelis saw Trump as more friendly to Israel, and in this they are quite correct.

After all, there were actually two incumbents running in this race, and whereas VP Harris was double-minded on Israel at every turn, Trump could boast the most stellar pro-Israel record of any president ever. During his first term in the White House from 2016-2020, Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and moved the US Embassy there; cut funding to the Palestinian Authority and UNRWA over corruption, incitement and pay-to-slay; recognized the Golan Heights as sovereign Israeli territory; brought historic reconciliation between Israel and several Sunni Arab states via the Abraham Accords; pulled Washington out of the seriously flawed Iranian nuclear deal; and his Secretary of State Mike Pompeo deemed Israeli communities in Judea/Samaria to be legal enterprises. No other US president can touch this list of policy accomplishments for Israel.

Yet over the course of the past four years, Trump has given the pro-Israel community reasons to be concerned about a possible second term. First, his relationship with Benjamin Netanyahu soured after the Israeli prime minister congratulated Joe Biden on his election victory in November 2020 – rather than siding with Trump on his protests that the election was stolen. Later, Trump openly criticized Netanyahu as weak for not assisting with the targeted strike on Qasem Soleimani, head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.

More recently, Trump objected to the IDF’s almost daily release of video clips of precision air strikes on enemy targets in Gaza and Lebanon, presenting them as ‘own goals’ in the hands of pro-Hamas and Hizbullah propagandists. He also chided Israel for not speeding up the pace of battle, arguing that the slow, deliberate approach was only fueling antisemitic protests worldwide. And he hinted that a lack of support among American Jewish voters might lead to his defeat.

In a broader sense, Trump also adopted a clear anti-war stance in his election campaign. He insisted he would end the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East – even arguing they would never have started if he were still president. He also pledged not to start any new wars requiring US troops to needlessly die on foreign soil. Taken alongside his “America First” agenda, some saw him emerging as a traditional conservative populist espousing American isolationism.

This harkens back to “Jacksonian populism” – which has become a trendy way for scholars to explain the current rise of what some decry as “Christian nationalism” in America. Andrew Jackson was the first US president from outside the main power centers of early America (Virginia, New York and Massachusetts) – a frontiersman who championed the nation’s agrarian society – its farmers and mill workers. His followers were skeptical of the rich and elite, of the railroad and steel barons, and of big government. They were especially opposed to foreign wars and entanglements.

Notable historians such as Walter Russell Meade and Michael Doran have recently traced this uniquely American philosophy down through the decades to today’s conservative Trump supporters – the working class and those from the countryside with no college degrees. They indeed distrust the coastal elites, and the hi-tech barons of our day. Trump’s promises resonated with them, to keep out foreigners, end the current wars, and stay out of any new conflicts abroad. This populist brand of isolationism, which certainly has found a following among conservative Republicans in recent generations, might lead one to think Trump is ready to abandon America’s allies, including Ukraine and Israel.

However, there is one major exception to this tradition of American isolationism – and that is Israel. Jacksonian populists always viewed America as a chosen nation with a divine destiny – much like Israel. The ancient Jewish commonwealth served as a model of a nation blessed by God and defended by farmer-warriors and shepherd-warriors like King David himself.  So, even if the US were to turn inward and let the world descend into chaos, they would never abandon Israel.

This truth appears to be holding in the wake of Trump’s remarkable comeback victory. In very short order, he has nominated key figures for his second administration who are stalwart friends of Israel. Gov. Mike Huckabee, tapped to be the next US ambassador to Israel, is a staunch Christian Zionist who has advocated for Israel’s annexation of Judea and Samaria. Senator Marco Rubio, slated to be the new Secretary of State, recently blamed every Palestinian casualty in Gaza on Hamas. Rep. Elise Stefanik, the incoming US ambassador to the UN, famously scolded the presidents of Harvard, Columbia and Penn universities for condoning antisemitism on campus. And the new Pentagon chief will be army veteran Pete Hegseth, a Fox News anchor who recently filmed a series of reports in Israel that accused Hamas of adopting a long-term strategy of perpetual war against the Jewish state.

This all bodes well for Israel as it awaits Trump’s second inauguration on January 20. Ukraine may be cornered into making painful territorial compromises, but Israelis can expect Trump to give them room to finish off Hamas and even Hizbullah. He may want it done more quickly, but he will have Jerusalem’s back.

Meanwhile, Trump may be against military wars, but he is quite fond and effective at economic warfare. We can expect a return of his “maximum pressure” policy towards Iran, which had their economy on the verge of collapse. Iran will have little choice than to call of its terror militias in the region, and I am hopeful it will lead to ceasefires and the return of the remaining Israeli hostages in short order.

Recall the case of American pastor Andrew Brunson, who was jailed by Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan on spurious charges. Some say Trump is too friendly with dictators like Erdogan, and in fact he was far too cordial to him in public. But privately, Trump warned that he would bankrupt the Turkish economy if Brunson was not released. Trump then put tough economic pressure on Ankara to the point that leading Turkish bankers and businessmen begged Erdogan to release him, and Brunson was indeed set free.

Thus, we can expect Trump to revive the US economy and use it as leverage to secure pro-America concessions in many parts of the world. And in this case, pro-America can also be read as pro-Israel.

Main photo: Trump and Netanyahu on friendly terms. (Wikipedia)