By: David R. Parsons, Senior Vice President & Spokesman

The Hamas massacres in southern Israel last October 7 left the entire nation fearing massive rocket barrages and home invasions by crazed, heavily-armed terrorists. Israelis knew Hizbullah was capable of even worse atrocities and shuddered at the thought of enduring countless waves of deadly rockets raining down from Lebanon. That threat has not fully materialised yet, as the Iranian-backed Shi’ite terror militia has been content to wage a war of attrition by means of an intense artillery duel right along Israel’s northern border. But the threat of an all-out war with Hizbullah continues to hang over Israel, and Lebanon as well. 

The recent Israeli targeting of Hizbullah’s senior military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut, and of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, has heightened the chances of a dreaded escalation in the North. But both sides also remember the widespread devastation of the last major conflict between them in 2006, and so far cooler heads have prevailed. 

Memories run deep of the intense 34-day war between Israel and Hizbullah in 2006, known on this side as the Second Lebanon War. For nearly seven weeks, Hizbullah forces fired thousands of Grad rockets, often laced with screws and ball-bearings to inflict greater casualties. Over two million Israelis in northern Israel, as far south as Hadera and Tiberias, were stuck in bomb shelters during the heat of summer. 

Two iconic images from that conflict really capture the moment. In one photo, a Christian couple from north Beirut calmly watched from their balcony as Israel’s precision air strikes pounded Hizbullah’s stronghold in south Beirut. The other picture shows Israelis on the rooftop of a high-rise building in Haifa running for safety as an unguided Hizbullah rocket explodes just meters away. Unlike in Lebanon, there was no safe place for Israelis to remain spectators. And Israel has warned ever since that nowhere in Lebanon will be off-limits next time. 

The intensity of that war did leave behind a strong deterrent effect, as Hizbullah largely held back for the next 17 years. And in northern Israel, community bomb shelters were allowed to fall into disrepair, such was the confidence that the enemy would dare not strike again. 

That is until October 7! The next day, Hizbullah began launching rockets and armed drones against Israeli army bases and communities close to the border, in a bid to draw IDF manpower and resources away from the Gaza front. That limited approach has held ever since, but it could change at any minute. 

Hizbullah is eager to exact revenge for the loss of their long-time military chief but must also listen to its masters in Iran. Since 2006, the Shi’ite militia has grown into a formidable army of over 50,000 fighters, including an elite Radwan force specially trained to carry out cross-border incursions and home invasions like the Nukhba units of Hamas did on October 7. They also have accumulated a massive arsenal of over 150,000 missiles and rockets, many guided, that can now reach all of Israel. Israeli officials anticipate having to absorb around 4,000 rockets per day over several weeks or longer. Hizbullah also has developed a very lethal drone capability. And because Hizbullah is so much closer, security analysts assess it poses a much greater threat to Israel than any direct attacks from Iran. 

This ever-looming Hizbullah threat has forced Israel to evacuate some 80,000 citizens from the immediate border area with Lebanon. Israeli leaders realise these evacuees cannot return home until Hizbullah forces are pushed back at least to the Litani river. A majority of Israelis are now in favour of an IDF armoured thrust into Lebanon to accomplish just that (though the chaos and costs of such an incursion could quickly change their minds). Hizbullah also knows its Shi’ite stronghold in south Beirut will be battered even worse than before – which is why most of the Dahieh neighbourhood was recently emptied. And Israeli leaders have recently warned that if Hizbullah targets civilians, then the IDF will respond with “disproportionate force” and all of Lebanon is fair game. 

Given all these risk calculations, it is understandable that both sides have largely sought to contain the current clashes to the border area. The ultimate question is whether the hesitancy will last much longer. Hizbullah has insisted that if a ceasefire is achieved in Gaza, they will hold fire as well. For Israel, the decision is one of whether to tackle the intolerable threat of Hizbullah now or put it off for later. 

Main photo: Wikipedia-Tasnim News Agency